What Super 7 Has Showed Us

Donald Trump and Joe Biden secured victories across the Super Tuesday map, defeating their closest rivals and moving closer to securing their party nominations.

While the elections highlighted the control both candidates have over their parties, they also revealed vulnerabilities for the general election. Trump faced challenges with well-educated suburban voters, while Biden encountered protest votes on his Middle East policies in Democratic-leaning areas like Minnesota.

Down the ballot, strategic moves benefited Adam Schiff as he navigated the state’s top-two primary, likely securing victory against a Republican opponent. In other areas, hard-line Republicans advanced from key primaries, though not without potential liabilities, such as Mark Robinson, who easily won the North Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary.

Super Tuesday yielded seven key insights into the general election:

1. The general election no one wanted: Tuesday night solidified that the chance of Trump or Biden not securing their primaries is highly unlikely. Many voters in both parties aren’t enthusiastic about a 2020 rematch, as indicated by polls. However, they now face the reality of it.
2. Nikki Haley at a crossroads: Nikki Haley, despite winning in Vermont, faced significant losses in states like Virginia, Colorado, and Massachusetts. The question now is not when she will end her candidacy but what her stance will be on supporting Trump after leaving the race.
3. Republicans may still have a Trump problem down ballot: Despite facing controversies, Mark Robinson, aligned with Trump, won the North Carolina gubernatorial primary. The GOP’s down-ballot challenges, particularly in suburban areas, were evident from Colorado to Virginia.
4. Biden’s ‘uncommitted’ hump is real: Biden faced setbacks in American Samoa and Minnesota, where the “uncommitted” option performed strongly, indicating dissatisfaction with his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Winning back these voters is crucial for Biden in the general election.
5. California gamesmanship paid off: Adam Schiff’s strategy in California, despite unsettling some liberals, proved successful as he secured the second spot in the general election. The top-two primary showcased the candidates’ ability to navigate complex electoral dynamics.
6. The House GOP conference inched to the right: Conservatives gained influence within the House GOP conference, with Rep. Barry Moore’s upset in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District. The backing of conservative groups like the Club for Growth played a role in these victories.
7. A disappointing night for the left: Progressives faced a setback with “uncommitted” voters performing well in Minnesota. While there are still uncalled Democratic primaries, the night wasn’t as successful for progressives as in some past elections.