Risky Impeachment Bet

The House GOP is heading toward an uncertain vote on the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, a move that could significantly impact their ongoing investigation into President Joe Biden.

Speaker Mike Johnson is taking a risky stance on the impeachment, expressing confidence that they will secure enough votes in the Tuesday session. However, with a limited margin for error, they can only afford to lose three Republicans at full attendance, and there are still holdouts, including Reps. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) and Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), who have publicly declared their opposition.

Buck emphasized the need for a substantial reason for impeachment, stating, “Having a policy difference, having a bad administrator, having incompetence, doesn’t cut it.” Johnson’s success in rallying enough votes would be a small victory in appeasing the right-wing faction, but a failure could add to conservative discontent with the GOP leadership.

The looming special election for expelled GOP Rep. George Santos’ seat adds pressure, as a Democratic victory would further reduce the GOP’s margin for dissent. House Republicans have been working behind the scenes for months to secure support for the rare impeachment of a Cabinet secretary.

Some Republicans, like Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), suggest that colleagues may have unrealistic expectations for what constitutes an impeachable offense or the evidence required for action against Biden.

As the vote approaches, holdouts remain, including Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), David Joyce (R-Ohio), and Maria Salazar (R-Fla.). The leadership accuses Mayorkas of a “breach of public trust” and a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law.”

Despite growing criticism from Republican allies and constitutional experts, Johnson insists on proceeding with the impeachment, while simultaneously rejecting the Senate’s bipartisan border security deal. The outcome of Tuesday’s vote will not only determine Mayorkas’ fate but may also impact the GOP’s future strategy in pursuing President Biden’s impeachment.

Even if the House Republicans manage to impeach Mayorkas, there’s skepticism about the Senate’s willingness to act swiftly on it. The focus remains on Republicans’ larger objective of impeaching Biden, with more GOP members hesitant and waiting for clear evidence linking Biden’s actions to his family’s business deals. The decision on pursuing impeachment against Biden is expected after a closed-door meeting with Hunter Biden later in the month.