The Current State Of Affairs For This Ex-McCarthy Deputy Is Less Than Favorable.

Louisiana currently wields significant influence over House GOP leadership, with Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise in the top positions. However, Representative Garret Graves (R-La.) may find himself without a seat soon.

Graves, once an advisor to Kevin McCarthy, saw his influence decline after McCarthy’s departure. Recently, the Louisiana legislature redrew district maps, complying with a federal court order to create a second majority-Black seat. In this process, they protected Johnson, Scalise, and two other Republicans but excluded Graves. Governor Jeff Landry signed the maps into law on Monday.

This leaves Graves with choices: run for a likely-lost seat, challenge a colleague, possibly his former mentee Rep. Julia Letlow, or skip the election altogether. Graves, who played a key role in a high-profile debt deal, has seen his star tarnish rapidly, emphasizing how the loss of influential allies can impact a political career.

The redistricting drama has sparked speculation in the Louisiana GOP that Graves has made enemies both in Washington and locally. Graves had criticized conservative hardliners and endorsed Landry’s primary opponent in June. Despite Speaker Johnson’s public support, Louisiana lawmakers ignored his plea to defend Graves’ seat.

Graves, while expressing reluctance to run against Letlow, believes the redrawn district and the safety of other GOP incumbents suggest he was singled out. He criticized the strategic decision as “strategically stupid.”

Despite endorsing Letlow early on, Graves expects to run for re-election, anticipating the map’s challenge in court. Letlow has refrained from commenting on the maps.

Other Louisiana lawmakers, including Senators Bill Cassidy and John Kennedy, question the logic of redrawing the maps and suggest that appealing the court’s decision might have been a better option. Landry maintains that the redistricting aims to conclude a challenging process and avoid a judge drawing the maps.

The strained relationship between Graves and Scalise, accusations during the speakership battle, and controversies surrounding McCarthy’s reliance on Graves rather than Scalise have added complexity to the situation. Despite the almost-certain loss of a Republican seat, conservatives are not rushing to defend Graves.

While Representative Troy Carter, the state’s lone Black congressman, supports the new maps, Cleo Fields, a Democratic state senator, has announced his intention to seek the redrawn seat. The unfolding events underscore the intricacies and challenges within the Louisiana GOP amid the redistricting process.